A Case for Sustainable Resource Management:
Climate Change and the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill

On April 20, 2010 an explosion and subsequent fire on the oil rig Deepwater Horizon resulted, within a few days, in the sinking of the rig and the uncontrolled release of crude oil at a depth of 1,500 meters in the Gulf of Mexico, roughly 65 km from the Louisiana coastline.   Since then the amount of oil discharged as a result of that accident has made it the largest environmental disaster in U.S. history.  While the magnitude of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill and its likely impact on the northern Gulf of Mexico ecosystem are unprecedented in the history of the United States, the spill is symptomatic of an even larger problem, reliance of the United States and indeed much of humankind on fossil fuel as a source of energy.  The Deepwater Horizon disaster, the latest of nine major oil spills that have occurred in the Gulf of Mexico region, will not be the last if we continue to pursue business-as-usual.  With oil becoming harder and harder to find, corporations will be forced to operate in even more treacherous conditions, increasing the likelihood of more catastrophic disasters.  This should be a wakeup call. 

There is overwhelming evidence that CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere have increased from roughly 280 to more than 380 parts per million during the last 150 years, with roughly half of that increase occurring during the last 35 years.  Human activities, primarily fossil fuel burning and secondarily deforestation, have been responsible for virtually all of this increase.  If present rates of fossil fuel combustion continue unabated, it is highly probable that atmospheric CO2 concentrations will increase to more than 1,500 ppm within a timeframe of several hundred years.  Natural processes, primarily uptake by the ocean, will eventually sequester much of the anthropogenic CO2 added to the atmosphere, but the timeframe for this process to play out will be roughly 10,000 years.  In the meantime, the environment of the Earth will be very different than it has ever been in human memory.  Indeed, people in the developing world are already suffering catastrophic effects on their lives and livelihoods from climate change.

Looking ahead, the uptake of CO2 by the ocean will cause an increase in the acidity of marine surface waters sufficient to threaten the existence of many ecologically and economically important marine plants and animals over a timeframe of several centuries.  Temperatures will rise as a result of the greenhouse effect associated with atmospheric CO2, with the increase being greatest at high latitudes, where CO2 is the dominant greenhouse gas, and especially so in the northern hemisphere, where melting of sea ice, already a well documented manifestation of climate change, will dramatically reduce the albedo of the Arctic Ocean by the year 2100.  The rise in temperature at high latitudes in the northern hemisphere will be sufficient to melt the Greenland ice cap over a timeframe of 500-1,000 years.  Melting of the Greenland icecap will cause sea level to rise by roughly 7 meters, sufficient to drown many coastal communities where hundreds of millions of people live today.  As a result of the displacement of the very large number of persons currently in harm’s way, there is great potential for social disruption as a result of this rise in sea level.  The U.S. Pentagon is already predicting increased resource wars, failed states, and terrorism as a result of climate change.

Although such changes in climate seem dramatic in the context of the human experience, even larger climate changes, caused by completely natural processes, have been common during the geological history of the Earth.  For roughly two million years the Earth has been locked in an ice age characterized by alternating glacial and interglacial cycles.  The relatively mild climate we currently experience is an interglacial that has lasted for about 10,000 years.  But 20,000 years ago, during the most recent glacial maximum, Canada was covered with an ice cap hundreds of meters thick.  Since the evolution of multicellular organisms roughly 570 million years ago, atmospheric CO2 concentrations have been generally higher than they are now, and the temperature of the lower atmosphere has been warmer.  Such conditions were by no means inconsistent with the emergence and evolution of complex forms of life.  Taking into consideration natural processes that for hundreds of millions of years have shaped and modified the climate of the Earth, there is no reason from a geological perspective to expect that the climate of the Earth will remain as it has been for the last 10,000 years of the current interglacial.  If humankind is to survive and flourish on a timeframe of tens to hundreds of thousands of years and longer, adaptation to changing climate will be a necessity.

Acknowledging that natural climate change is inevitable, concern about the changes currently being caused by fossil fuel burning and deforestation reflect several considerations.  First, the changes being caused by anthropogenic activities are proceeding at an unprecedented pace.  The climate changes that took place in the past, while large in magnitude, occurred more gradually, giving organisms a chance to adapt.  Polar bears, which evolved during the current ice age, are a good example.  Second, fossil fuels are not a renewable resource, and it is inevitable that they will be exhausted on a timeframe on the order of centuries. 

• It is tempting to assume that technology will come to the rescue, but incidents such as the Deepwater Horizon oil spill remind us that technology alone cannot solve problems whose genesis is the nonsustainable exploitation of the resources of planet Earth.  It is axiomatic that the human species will flourish in the long run only if humankind can learn to manage the natural resources of this planet in a sustainable manner.   This is not now occurring.  It is urgent that the transition begin now to sustainable policies underpinned by best practice methods including risk management.  Yet the proposals being discussed in the current U.N. Bonn talks would allow the rich nations—through a series of carbon accounting gimmicks and loopholes—to increase carbon emissions by as much as 4-8% above 1990 levels if loopholes are not closed.  This is a far-cry from the cuts of 40-50% that sound science and equity demand.
• We recognize that the transition to a renewable energy society will not be easy.  Changes will have to occur in our attitudes toward growth and development, especially by those in the wealthier parts of the world, and in our perceptions of what is important for us as individuals and societies.  But we believe it is within our power as human beings to make these changes; and furthermore, we believe that societies based on renewable energy will, in the long run, prove to lead to healthier and happier individuals and societies than those of the present.  What is lacking and urgently needed is visionary leadership and the political will to face the need of considering the common good rather than pandering to vested interests.

During March 22-26, 2010 a group of more than 35 scholars met at the Oxford Round Table in Oxford, England to discuss the Copenhagen Protocol.  The foregoing statement reflects the opinions of the undersigned scientists who participated in that Round Table discussion.